So last night I turn on Charlie Rose and listen to his interviews about the economy. The last interview, with Richard Posner, is worth listening to — twice. You have to get used to the disconnect between Posner's lucid, shyly delivered comments, and the drama of the content.
Here are some notes:
Posner doesn't talk about recession. He says we are in a Depression; right now. He says politicans just can’t say the D word. Posner’s book has a subtitle of "Descent Into Depression".
Posner is deeply disappointed in Obama, although it takes some teasing out by Rose to get to Posner's true feelings. Those feelings are: Obama was incompetent after being elected; afforded a long transition time, he made no plans about how to deal with the economy. What Obama is doing is ad hoc — improvisation with trillions of dollars. With so much uncertainty, and that uncertainty fueling a freeze in the economy, it was contingent on Obama to come into office with decisiveness and an underlying plan of action.
Posner thinks that Obama’s approach of, "not wasting a crisis", is stupid. Posner said that with the economy hurting, spending yet more money without first making real progress on the deficit is madness.
Posner feels that things have devolved to a toss up — a gamble. No one knows what will happen and no one knows what to do and we have very little control in the outcome now. International challenges combined with the bumbling of the administration are leaving the fate of the country to a flip of the coin.
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My own note: Obama thinks his speech making is the same thing as governing. In many ways he is reminiscent of Bush who left it to his staff. He is off on ten paths, all at once, hoping movement will be parsed as leadership.
His contradictions abound, even so early on in his administration. This applies as well to his international actions. In his Cairo speech he said that America has no right to tell other countries what to do and then tells Israel what its policies should be on settlements. Obama’s trip to Europe, seeking money and help in Afghanistan yielded zip. A humiliation the press forgot to mention. The media played it like it was the second coming of JFK but what Europe liked was hearing criticism of America.
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The other interview, with David Leonhardt, Alan Blinder and Alan Auerbach made the same point. Obama came into office with no plan to handle the deficit and has done nothing since taking office to address the issues.
If you add the above tale of woe to a Fresh Air interview with Ahmed Rashid you have good reason to take Prozac. Rashid is an extremely knowledgeable and generous interviewee. He offers a tremendous amount of information. It spills out of him. He feels Obama has dropped the ball on Pakistan with horrible consequences a real possibility now. His book's title, resonating with Posner's book, is Descent Into Chaos. Rashid is speaking about Pakistan, but it doesn't take much to globalize such an assertion.